Exploring the roles of seasonality and demography in tick borne disease dynamics
Abstract
Pathogens in nature provide a fascinating lens for studying connections in an ecosystem. Tracing the movement of a pathogen between species and populations is like following a thread that ties together pieces of a tapestry. Lyme disease, a bacterial infection spread by tick bites, is a particularly interesting study system because it is very complex. The ticks that spread Lyme disease feed on a broad diversity of wildlife, many of which can be hosts for disease-causing bacteria. Recent changes in climate, land use, and wildlife communities have resulted in a rapid increase both in the number and geographic spread of Lyme disease cases. The rapid spread of disease presents both a pressing environmental and public health concern. In my research, I used surveillance data to explore Lyme disease trends. I found that children and youth get sick about four weeks earlier than adults. I also found that the timing of Lyme disease cases is now around six weeks earlier than 25 years ago. To understand why cases are happening earlier, I developed a mathematical model that simulates bacteria transmission between ticks and bank voles. This model can help us understand how wildlife population dynamics influence disease outcomes.List of papers
Paper 1. Goren, A., Viljugrein, H., Rivrud, I. M., Jore, S., Bakka, H., Vindenes, Y. & Mysterud, A. (2023). The emergence and shift in seasonality of Lyme borreliosis in Northern Europe. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 290(1993), 20222420. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2022.2420. The paper is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.2420 |
Paper 2. Goren, A., Mysterud, A., Jore, S., Viljugrein, H., Bakka, H. & Vindenes, Y. (2023). Demographic patterns in Lyme borreliosis seasonality over 25 years. Zoonoses and Public Health, 70(7), 647-655. DOI: 10.1111/zph.13073. The paper is included in the thesis. Also available at: https://doi.org/10.1111/zph.13073 |
Paper 3. Goren, A., Mysterud, A. & Vindenes, Y. Modeling the effects of seasonality in tick questing behavior and host demographic turnover on Lyme disease hazard. Manuscript. To be published. The paper is not available in DUO awaiting publishing. |