Was the 2019 Christchurch attack a black swan event? Understanding far-right violence in New Zealand

Abstract

On 15 March 2019, far-right actor Brenton Tarrant killed 51 people at the al Noor Mosque and Linwood Islamic Centre in Christchurch, New Zealand. Media and politicians presented this event as an ‘end of innocence’ for New Zealand, with many wondering how such an attack could occur in an extremely isolated and generally peaceful location. However, for a range of reasons, it is not immediately clear whether the Christchurch attack represented a black swan event, or is better understood as a spectacularly lethal version of a poorly documented phenomenon chronically occurring across the country. To understand the extent to which severe far-right violence is actually occurring within New Zealand, this article documents incidents both before, and immediately following the Christchurch attack. It identifies a chronic level of attacks motivated by far-right beliefs which, when considered on a per-capita basis, suggests that serious far-right violence may actually be more prevalent in New Zealand than other broadly comparable countries. Moving forward, it is crucial that New Zealand develop a comprehensive government-funded method to systematically monitor and respond to far-right attacks, and that this response is not designed solely through the narrow prism of a single, highly idiosyncratic event.