Abstract
Using game theory, this thesis aims to map the conditions (if any) under which the Amazon agreement between Norway and Brazil might be made self-enforcing. Modelling the agreement as a repeated Prisoner’s Dilemma, it first shows how the two countries have cooperated based on a strategy similar to Penance. It then analyses President Bolsonaro’s decision to defect in 2019 and, drawing on strengths and weaknesses of Penance, identify factors that might have undermined the agreement. I argue that the main reason why Brazil defected is that the election of President Bolsonaro represent a change in Brazilian preferences entailing that they now value their sovereignty over the Amazon higher than Norway’s financial transfers. This thesis ends by considering various approaches Norway might take in order to restore cooperation. I also discuss possible measures that could have been incorporated into the agreement from the beginning to avoid defections.