Abstract
Senator Obama campaigned on a concept of “Good War – Bad War”, which meant that he supported the Afghanistan War, but that he felt the Iraq War was a terrible mistake. When he came into office, one of his main goals was to win the war in Afghanistan. This research has assessed how and why President Obama throughout 2009 ordered a civil-military surge in Afghanistan, based primarily on interviews conducted with key individuals involved in the process. The thesis has applied Graham T. Allison’s theory on governmental behavior to assess, through rational, organizational and intrapersonal aspects, why the strategy ended up as it did. The threat and available options that the Obama administration perceived in Afghanistan justifies the choices they made at a rational level. A question is however if the choices were made with the right assumptions. The assumptions were derived from processes and individuals from different organizations. The research shows how there was a clear footprint from the Department of Defense (DoD) and the intelligence community in the strategy’s preparatory reviews and meetings. The Department of State (DoS) was involved, but they were only a supporting actor. The DoD concentrated on an option of a large counterinsurgency campaign to defeat the threat represented by al-Qaeda and the Taliban. A team within the DoS was looking for a resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan through a political solution but did not have sufficient support from the individuals closest to President Obama. Both rational, organizational and individual factors did shape the final decision of President Obama in 2009. External factors, like the leak of General McChrystal’s assessment on Afghanistan, or political pressure from Congress, forced Obama to make quick decisions. His network of key advisors influenced the direction leading towards the surge. During his first year in office in 2009, he increased the number of troops three times, initiated two strategic reviews, before he on December 1, 2009, announced what has later been known as the Obama Surge. The result was a significant increase in troops to Afghanistan and drone activities in Pakistan.