• English
    • Norsk
  • English 
    • English
    • Norsk
  • Administration
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Det samfunnsvitenskapelige fakultet
  • Institutt for statsvitenskap
  • Institutt for statsvitenskap
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Det samfunnsvitenskapelige fakultet
  • Institutt for statsvitenskap
  • Institutt for statsvitenskap
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Climate, development, and conflict: Learning from the past and mapping uncertainties of the future

Vestby, Jonas
Doctoral thesis
View/Open
Vestby-PhD--2018.pdf (5.798Mb)
Year
2018
Permanent link
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-63672

Metadata
Show metadata
Appears in the following Collection
  • Institutt for statsvitenskap [3411]
Abstract
Will climate change increase the prevalence of violent conflict in the future? To investigate this broad and difficult question, this thesis argues that we need to start with sound causal inference regarding the historical relationship between climate impacts on society and conflict outcomes. Earlier research reported highly disparate effects of climate shocks on conflict outcomes. This thesis makes a critical reading of the methodological approaches in these earlier studies, and suggests solutions to common issues endangering causal inference. A broad conclusion from the thesis is that the impacts of climate shocks on conflict are context dependent. Effects are only found for communal conflicts in resource-scarce areas where government services are lacking and where conflicts may be directly related to resources that are likely to be affected by changes in the climate. This insight becomes important when thinking about the relationship between climate change and the prevalence of violent conflict in the future. Supporting the positive socio-economic development that has occurred in the last 20 years in many poor and conflict-ridden states will be key to keep the impacts of climate shocks and climate change on violent conflict as low as they have been in the last decades.
List of papers
Article 1 (chapter 2): Hegre, Håvard, Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T Waldhoff and Elisabeth Gilmore (2016). “Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways.” Environmental Research Letters, 11(5): 054002. The article is included in the thesis. Also available at https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002
Article 2 (chapter 3): Vestby, Jonas (Working Paper). “Climate shocks, environmental vulnerability, mobilization, and the onset of ethnic civil conflicts”. The paper is included in the thesis.
Article 3 (chapter 4): Nordkvelle, Jonas, Siri Aas Rustad and Monika Salmivalli (2017). “Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization.” Climatic Change, 141 (4), 627–639. The article is included in the thesis. Also available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3
Article 4 (chapter 5): Vestby, Jonas (Working Paper). “Climate variability and individual motivations to participate in political violence”. The paper is included in the thesis.
 
Responsible for this website 
University of Oslo Library


Contact Us 
duo-hjelp@ub.uio.no


Privacy policy
 

 

For students / employeesSubmit master thesisAccess to restricted material

Browse

All of DUOCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitles

For library staff

Login
RSS Feeds
 
Responsible for this website 
University of Oslo Library


Contact Us 
duo-hjelp@ub.uio.no


Privacy policy