Browsing Økonomisk institutt by Author "Keilman, Nico"

Now showing items 1-14 of 14

  • Can We Rely on Projections of the Immigrant Population? The Case of Norway 
    Keilman, Nico (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2023)
    Demographic forecasters must be realistic about how well they can predict future populations, and it is important that they include estimates of uncertainty in their forecasts. Here we focus on the future development of ...
  • Do Japanese and Italian Women Live Longer than Women in Scandinavia? 
    Borgan, Ørnulf; Keilman, Nico (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / AcceptedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2019)
    Life expectancies at birth are routinely computed from period life tables. When mortality is falling, such period life expectancies will typically underestimate real life expectancies, that is, life expectancies for birth ...
  • Erroneous Population Forecasts 
    Keilman, Nico (Chapter / Bokkapittel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2019)
    World population in the year 2000 was 6.09 billion, according to recent estimates by the United Nations (UN 2005). This number is almost 410 million lower than the year 2000-estimate that the UN expected in 1973. The UN ...
  • Erroneous population forecasts 
    Keilman, Nico (Chapter / Bokkapittel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2019)
    World population in the year 2000 was 6.09 billion, according to recent estimates by the United Nations (UN 2005). This number is almost 410 million lower than the year 2000-estimate that the UN expected in 1973. The UN ...
  • European Mortality Forecasts: Are the Targets Still Moving? 
    Keilman, Nico; Kristoffersen, Sigve (Chapter / Bokkapittel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2020)
    Many statistical agencies routinely produce population forecasts, and revise these forecasts when new data become available, or when current demographic trends indicate that an update is necessary. When the forecaster ...
  • Evaluating probabilistic population forecasts 
    Keilman, Nico (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / AcceptedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2020)
    We demonstrate how a probabilistic population forecast can be evaluated, when observations for the predicted variables become available. Statisticians have developed various scoring rules for that purpose, but there are ...
  • Expert opinion on migration data. QuantMig Deliverable D6.1 
    Keilman, Nico; Aristotelous, Georgios (Research report / Forskningsrapport, 2021)
  • Family projection methods: A review 
    Keilman, Nico (Chapter / Bokkapittel / AcceptedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2018)
    I review methods for projecting the family structure of a population into the future. The focus is on Western countries. I define the concept of “family”, and stress the close link between family and household. There is ...
  • Introduction 
    Keilman, Nico; Mazzuco, Stefano (Chapter / Bokkapittel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2020)
    Future trends in population size, age structure, regional distribution, and other demographic variables are important for a wide range of planning situations. Hence, many statistical agencies and independent researchers ...
  • Measures for Human Reproduction Should Be Linked to Both Men and Women 
    Keilman, Nico; Tymicki, Krzysztof; Skribekk, Vegard (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2014)
    We introduce the two-sex net reproduction rate (2SNRR) and the two-sex total fertility rate (2STFR)—two demographic indicators that reflect the number of children born, given age specific fertility and mortality of the ...
  • Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables 
    Keilman, Nico (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2019)
    Background: When age-specific mortality falls, period life tables give a distorted view of the life expectancy (LE) and the degree of mortality compression in birth cohorts. Objective: To derive mathematical expressions ...
  • Probabilistic household forecasts for five countries in Europe 
    Keilman, Nico (Research report / Forskningsrapport, 2015)
    We show how techniques of data dimension reduction can be used to predict patterns of household dynamics in a multi-country context. Probabilistic household forecasts are presented for Denmark, Finland, Germany, the ...
  • Sex-differences in life expectancy at birth: A descriptive analysis of the contributions of age and causes of death to the gap in Norway, 1881–2011 
    Maiolo, Valeria; Keilman, Nico; Gjertsen, Finn (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2023)
    Official mortality statistics provide ample evidence that women live longer than men. In many European countries, the sex difference in life expectancy began to increase near the end of the nineteenth century, peaking ...
  • Simulating the life course of psoriasis patients: the interplay between therapy intervention and marital status 
    Linder, Dennis; Frigessi, Arnoldo; Piaserico, Stefano; Keilman, Nico (Journal article / Tidsskriftartikkel / AcceptedVersion; Peer reviewed, 2017)
    Background: psoriasis, a chronic relapsing inflammatory disease affecting primarily the skin, shows multiple comorbidities including depression, cardiovascular diseases and other relevant conditions. Psoriasis patients ...