• English
    • Norsk
    • English
    • Norsk
  • Administration
View Item 
  •   Home
  • Øvrige samlinger
  • Høstingsarkiver
  • CRIStin høstingsarkiv
  • View Item
  •   Home
  • Øvrige samlinger
  • Høstingsarkiver
  • CRIStin høstingsarkiv
  • View Item
JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

Climate scientists' wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain

Løhre, Erik; Juanchich, Marie; Sirota, Miroslav; Teigen, Karl Halvor; Shepherd, Theodore G.
Journal article; PublishedVersion; Peer reviewed
View/Open
L%C3%B8hre+et+a ... ved+to+be+less+certain.pdf (756.7Kb)
Year
2019
Permanent link
http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-77256

CRIStin
1698960

Metadata
Show metadata
Appears in the following Collection
  • Psykologisk institutt [2864]
  • CRIStin høstingsarkiv [15189]
Original version
Weather, Climate, and Society. 2019, 11 (3), 565-575, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-18-0136.1
Abstract
The use of interval forecasts allows climate scientists to issue predictions with high levels of certainty even for areas fraught with uncertainty, since wide intervals are objectively more likely to capture the truth than narrow intervals. However, wide intervals are also less informative about what the outcome will be than narrow intervals, implying a lack of knowledge or subjective uncertainty in the forecaster. In six experiments, we investigate how laypeople perceive the (un)certainty associated with wide and narrow interval forecasts, and find that the preference for accuracy (seeing wide intervals as “objectively” certain) versus informativeness (seeing wide intervals as indicating “subjective” uncertainty) is influenced by contextual cues (e.g., question formulation). Most important, we find that people more commonly and intuitively associate wide intervals with uncertainty than with certainty. Our research thus challenges the wisdom of using wide intervals to construct statements of high certainty in climate change reports.
 
Responsible for this website 
Universitetsbiblioteket i Oslo


Contact Us 
duo-hjelp@ub.uio.no


Privacy policy
 

 

For students / employeesSubmit master thesisAccess to restricted material

Browse

All of DUOCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitles

For library staff

Login
RSS Feeds
 
Responsible for this website 
Universitetsbiblioteket i Oslo


Contact Us 
duo-hjelp@ub.uio.no


Privacy policy