Climate change and the impacts on crop-agriculture in Tanzania
AbstractClimate change can cause decline in crops especially in vulnerable areas. In southern Tanzania maize production is expected to decline due to projected future warming and changes in seasonal rainfall patterns and distribution. This study investigated the impacts of a changing climate on three maize cultivars commonly grown in southern part of Tanzania and projections of future rainfall and temperature for Tanzania. Prolonged dry-spells and decreased seasonal rainfall intensity during vegetative and reproductive stages of maize growing caused severe loss of maize yields for all cultivars. However, yields increased with increased temperature of 2.5°C and up to 4.5°C for some maize cultivars and declined with further temperature increase. Downscaled climate projections for three future periods; 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 suggested wetter (drier) conditions for October-December (December-April) rainfall seasons. Projections also suggested future warmer climate except for a few locations in September-November season. Results from this study can be very useful for strategic adaptation measures in crop agriculture in Tanzania.
List of papers
|Paper I: Mtongori, H. I., F. Stordal, R.E. Benestad, S.K. Mourice, M.E. Pereira-Floress, and F. Justino, 2015: Impacts of climate and farming management on maize yield in southern Tanzania. African Crop Science Journal, 23, 399 - 417. The paper is available in DUO: http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-54678|
|Paper II: Mtongori, H., F. Stordal, and R. Benestad, 2015: Evaluation of Empirical Statistical Downscaling models' skill in predicting Tanzanian rainfall and their application in providing future downscaled scenarios. Journal of Climate, 29, 3231-3252. The paper is available in DUO: http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-56629|
|Paper III: Mtongori, H., R. Benestad and F. Stordal: Empirical-Statistical Downscaling of ensembles of temperature projections for Tanzania: The role of experimental setup and calibration data. Submitted to Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. To be published. The paper is not available in DUO awaiting publishing.|