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dc.date.accessioned2016-01-08T09:57:46Z
dc.date.available2016-01-08T09:57:46Z
dc.date.created2015-10-01T14:42:27Z
dc.date.issued2015
dc.identifier.citationHohle, Sigrid Møyner Teigen, Karl Halvor . Forecasting forecasts: The trend effect. Judgment and decision making. 2015, 10(5), 416-428
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10852/48494
dc.description.abstractPeople often make predictions about the future based on trends they have observed in the past. Revised probabilistic forecasts can be perceived by the public as indicative of such a trend. In five studies, we describe experts who make probabilistic forecasts of various natural events (effects of climate changes, landslide and earthquake risks) at two points in time. Prognoses that have been upgraded or downgraded from T1 to T2 were in all studies expected to be updated further, in the same direction, later on (at T3). Thus, two prognoses were in these studies enough to define a trend, forming the basis for future projections. This “trend effect” implies that non-experts interpret recent forecast in light of what the expert said in the past, and think, for instance, that a “moderate” landslide risk will cause more worry if it has previously been low than if it has been high. By transcending the experts’ most recent forecasts the receivers are far from conservative, and appear to know more about the experts’ next prognoses than the experts themselves.en_US
dc.languageEN
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.publisherSociety for Judgment and Decision Making
dc.relation.ispartofHohle, Sigrid Møyner (2019) Communicating the future: Dynamic implications of probabilistic climate forecasts. Doctoral thesis http://hdl.handle.net/10852/66665
dc.relation.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10852/66665
dc.rightsAttribution 3.0 Unported
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/
dc.titleForecasting forecasts: The trend effecten_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.creator.authorHohle, Sigrid Møyner
dc.creator.authorTeigen, Karl Halvor
cristin.unitcode185,17,5,0
cristin.unitnamePsykologisk institutt
cristin.ispublishedtrue
cristin.fulltextoriginal
cristin.qualitycode1
dc.identifier.cristin1277766
dc.identifier.bibliographiccitationinfo:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:ctx&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:journal&rft.jtitle=Judgment and decision making&rft.volume=10&rft.spage=416&rft.date=2015
dc.identifier.jtitleJudgment and decision making
dc.identifier.volume10
dc.identifier.issue5
dc.identifier.startpage416
dc.identifier.endpage428
dc.identifier.urnURN:NBN:no-52404
dc.type.documentTidsskriftartikkelen_US
dc.type.peerreviewedPeer reviewed
dc.source.issn1930-2975
dc.identifier.fulltextFulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/48494/1/Hohle%2526Teigen%2BJDM.pdf
dc.type.versionPublishedVersion


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