The problem discussed in the paper is savings behaviour of households. Savings are introduced as a function of several variables, which are supposed to influence the process of decision-making. The main factors in the model are income of household, age of husband as a characteristic of household s age structure and occupational pensions eligible to the spouses. Since this paper is a part of the pension project special emphasis is placed on the interconnection between savings and two types of pension, such as earlier retirement pension (AFP) and occupational private pension (OP). This influences the selection of the groups of population to be analyzed, which are households where one of the spouses is between 40 and 67 years old.
Empirical analysis was done for this particular group of households and gave the following results: households increase their savings when they get higher income and when spouses become older. Regarding the average age of husbands in this group of households the latter issues are considered meaningful although they contradict the life cycle model of savings. An influence of additional pensions on savings behaviour is a subject of the main interest here. We have considered several models with either quantitative or qualitative characteristics of eligibility to different pension schemes. Qualitative characteristics allow for the fact that a spouse has an access to some kind of additional pensions. It was included into the model by dummy variables for every type of eligibility. Qualitative analysis was done based on predicted pension calculated with regard to existing rules and personal characteristics of spouses. Firstly we use yearly after-tax future pension income of household as an estimate for potential pension. Since pensions appear as a permanent income over a future period, we created also future pension wealth, which shows discounted sum of the future pensions over an expected period of retirement. A common tendency is that people start to save less when they get an access to any kind of additional pensions. Since an access to these kinds of pension differs across households, they were separated with respect to their eligibility. The estimates differ across the different groups of households that do not give an opportunity to find one common pattern, but we can still make grounded conclusions about existing interrelationships between savings and future pensions.
The results of the estimation allow us to create macroeconomic savings and consumptions functions based on estimates in the micro model. Here we consider just two groups of households with and without eligibility, which are weighted correspondingly to the shares of population in each of them. Macroeconomic behaviour is represented by characteristics of an average household separately for two groups. Income is basically introduced in the model by an entropy form, so we use properties of lognormal distribution to estimate its expected value to describe an average household. This allows us to estimate macroeconomic savings as a function of income and describe its changes with respect to different factors such as income variance, age of husband, pension income and weights for groups with and without an access to additional pensions, which are assumed to be endogenous in this model. Estimated savings function as a function of income is increasing and concave that corresponds to theoretical properties of savings function. Assuming that people divide their income between savings and consumptions, we are able to create macroeconomic consumption function using existing information on incomes and savings.
The paper is organized as follows. Chapter 1 includes institutional settings for earlier retirement scheme and occupational private pensions. Chapter 2 is devoted to the data description and its initial analysis introduced by summary statistics and distributions. The models and their specifications are described in Chapter 3. We consider the three models, which differ by the characteristic of an access to occupational pensions used in the model. Chapter 4 contains estimation results for the models using both ordinary and weighted least squares methods. The interpretation the results is displayed in Chapter 5. The last chapter (Chapter 6) is dedicated to the macroeconomic savings and consumption functions built on the base of microeconomic analysis described in the paper.