Political stability and changes after the Gulf crisis (1990-91) in the United Arab Emirates

Abstract

POLITICAL STABILITY AND CHANGES AFTER THE GULF CRISIS IN THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES In this thesis I define the United Arab Emirates (the UAE) as a ruling monarchy, because the political system basically shares characteristics with a traditional monarchies. I have pointed at that the monarchy of the UAE is legitimated by the legacy of the British imperial rule and not by the tradition of kingship in the Arab world. The questions I pose in the thesis are: How can the political stability of the UAE be explained? and Was the Gulf Crisis one of the kinds of challenges that may threaten the survival of the ruling monarchy in the UAE? I argue that the unique combination of external influence (British imperial policy), the relatively enormous oil revenues and a specific local political culture which correspond to a hierarchical way of life explain the political stability of the UAE. The Gulf Crisis had a dynamic effect on the political life of the UAE and did not challenge or threaten the survival of the ruling monarchy. Further, I maintain that prospects for democratization in the UAE after the Gulf Crisis are plausible when one considers the trend towards democratization in other countries in the Gulf. On the one hand, I point to three factors, which may contribute to democratization: US influence upon the UAE concerning defence, economic development involving significant industrialization and global culture. On the other hand, I argue that the political actors must respond to more fundamental structural questions as reforms such as solving the question regarding succession, education, taxation, mobilization and assimilation before democratization can be a reality in the UAE.