dc.date.accessioned | 2013-03-12T08:16:28Z | |
dc.date.available | 2013-03-12T08:16:28Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2005 | en_US |
dc.date.submitted | 2009-11-25 | en_US |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10852/10579 | |
dc.description.abstract | We discuss the modeling of electricity contracts traded in many deregulated power markets. These forward/futures type contracts deliver (either physically or financially) electricity over a specified time period, and is frequently referred to as swaps since they in effect represent an exchange of fixed for floating electricity price. We provide a thorough discussion of how the Nordic power market Nord Pool is organized, in order to motivate a Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to model swap prices since the notion of a spot price is not easily defined. For general stochastic dynamical models, we connect the spot price, the fixed-delivery forward price and the swap price, and analyze two different ways to apply the Heath-Jarrow-Morton approach to swap pricing: Either one specifies a dynamics for the non-existing fixed-delivery forwards and derives the implied swap dynamics, or one models directly on the swaps. The former is shown to lead to quite complicated stochastic models for the swap price, even when the forward dynamics is simple. The latter has some theoretical problems due to a no-arbitrage condition that has to be satisfied for swaps with overlapping delivery period. To overcome this problem, we suggest a practical modeling approach where we suppose that the market only consists of non-overlapping swaps, and model these directly. A thorough empirical study is performed using data collected from Nord Pool. Our investigations demonstrate that it is possible to state reasonable models for the swap price dynamics which is analytically tractable for risk management and option pricing purposes, however, this is an area of further research. | eng |
dc.language.iso | eng | en_US |
dc.publisher | Matematisk Institutt, Universitetet i Oslo | |
dc.relation.ispartof | Preprint series. Pure mathematics http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-8076 | en_US |
dc.relation.uri | http://urn.nb.no/URN:NBN:no-8076 | |
dc.rights | © The Author(s) (2005). This material is protected by copyright law. Without explicit authorisation, reproduction is only allowed in so far as it is permitted by law or by agreement with a collecting society. | |
dc.title | STOCHASTIC MODELING OF FINANCIAL ELECTRICITY CONTRACTS | en_US |
dc.type | Research report | en_US |
dc.date.updated | 2009-11-25 | en_US |
dc.rights.holder | Copyright 2005 The Author(s) | |
dc.creator.author | Benth, Fred Espen | en_US |
dc.creator.author | Koekebakker, Steen | en_US |
dc.subject.nsi | VDP::410 | en_US |
dc.identifier.urn | URN:NBN:no-23623 | en_US |
dc.type.document | Forskningsrapport | en_US |
dc.identifier.duo | 97293 | en_US |
dc.identifier.fulltext | Fulltext https://www.duo.uio.no/bitstream/handle/10852/10579/1/pm24-05.pdf | |